Indus Water Treaty suspension impact.

The Indus Waters Treaty, established in 1960, is a water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, facilitated by the World Bank. This treaty is recognized as one of the most effective water-sharing arrangements to date, often appearing in discussions regarding Indo-Pak relations.

On 25 August 2021, Pakistan expressed concerns regarding a large 624 MW project on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir, claiming that the dam contravened the Indus Water Treaty. However, the Indian government firmly maintained that the dam's construction adhered to the treaty's established guidelines.

The Indus Water system contributes nearly 25% of Pakistan’s GDP and supports crops like wheat, rice, sugarcane, and cotton. Pakistan is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, and per capita availability is declining rapidly. If India cuts off or significantly reduces flows from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, the impact will be immediate and severe:

Food production could collapse, threatening food security for millions.
Urban water supplies would dry up, causing unrest in cities.
Power generation would stall, crippling industries and homes.
Loan defaults, unemployment, and migration could spike in rural regions.

Background of Indus Water Treaty

The Indus Waters Treaty was executed by the then Prime Minister of India, Jawaharlal Nehru, and the then President of Pakistan, Ayub Khan. The agreement, facilitated by the World Bank (formerly known as the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development), was the result of nine years of negotiations. Since the partition of India in 1947, the Indus River has been a source of dispute among the four nations it traverses: India, Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan, with its source located in Tibet. In 1948, India temporarily halted water flow to Pakistan but resumed it following a ceasefire. In 1951, Pakistan brought the issue before the United Nations (UN), alleging that India had restricted water supply to numerous Pakistani villages. Acting on the UN's recommendations, the World Bank formulated this treaty in 1954, which was ultimately signed on 19 September 1960.

Provisions of Indus Water Treaty

The agreement delineates the terms for the allocation of water from the Indus River and its five tributaries. India has authority over the three eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, which are available for India's unrestricted use unless an adverse situation arises. Conversely, Pakistan has control over the three western rivers: Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. The United Nations established a Permanent Indus Commission to address any disputes related to water sharing, providing a framework for amicable arbitration. Under the treaty, India is permitted to utilize water from the western rivers for domestic, non-consumptive purposes, including storage, irrigation, and electricity generation.

The treaty allocates 20% of the water from the Indus River System to India, while Pakistan receives the remaining 80%. In implementing flood protection or control measures, both countries are required to minimize material damage to each other as much as possible. The natural channels of the rivers may be used freely for discharging floodwaters or excess water without restrictions from either country, and neither nation may claim damages resulting from such usage.

Impact on PAK

PAK depends a lot on the waters passed through India by the Indus Water Treaty. The water is lifeline for their country because they had built no concrete infrastructure to manage the water due to corruption by the PAK Army officials who are filthy rich but the nation is almost banckrupt. The water is used to:

Almost 80% of the cultivated land in Pakistan, which spans some 16 million hectares, is wholly based on these waters.
93% of this water goes into agriculture, which is the backbone of Pakistan's rural economy.
More than 237 million people live in the Indus Basin, with Pakistan providing home to roughly 61% of them.
Major urban cities such as Karachi, Lahore, and Multan depend extensively on the Indus system for water supply for urban purposes.
Hydropower plants like Tarbela and Mangla also depend on uninterrupted flows.

PAK has previously said that calling off the Indus Water Treaty would mean the act of WAR. So be it...

The pahalgam attack by PAK terrorist on tourist is an act of coward and PAK army being on high alert signals the involvement, and there has been no condemnation for the attack by their side. Clearly a rogue nation at play. Subramaniam Swamy (Rajya Sabha BJP MP) wrote after the attacks that