Bangladesh Turmoil - Explained & the road ahead.

Bangladesh has been under turmoil, its Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee the country after the mob started marching towards her residence. What followed after that was the violence against the minority population (particularly Hindus) and the supporters of Awami League, the party of Sheikh Hasina.

Sheikh Hasina was close to India and respected India's three red lines, which the previous Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) governments violated on multiple occasions. This included protecting Hindu minorities, clamping down on extremists and Northeast militants who targeted India from Bangladesh, and respecting Indian security sensitivities and concerns when engaging with hostile countries like Pakistan and China.

The trade volume between India and Bangladesh increased significantly from USD 2 billion in 2007 to USD 14 billion by 2022. Furthermore, in the subsequent year, New Delhi extended an offer of more than USD 8 billion in credit lines to Bangladesh. Enhancing connectivity was also a priority, marked by the revival of rail services, initiatives for improved transit and port access, and the establishment of a diesel supply pipeline. Additionally, both nations successfully addressed their maritime disputes and ratified the land boundary agreement, marking the beginning of a "golden era" in India-Bangladesh relations.

Reason of the protest.

It is alleged that, some western power (probably USA) is involved in this upheavel. If it is true, its sad that peace mongering are the double faced witch hunters.

The demonstrations commenced in early July, initiated by university students advocating for the elimination of quotas in civil service positions, which allocate one-third of these roles to relatives of veterans from Bangladesh's 1971 war of independence against Pakistan. The activists contended that this system was unjust and required significant reform. While their initial demands were largely addressed, the protests rapidly evolved into a broader anti-government movement.

Bangladesh has emerged as a significant player in the ready-to-wear clothing export industry, generating around USD 40 billion in sales to the international market. This sector provides employment for over 4 million individuals, a substantial number of whom are women. However, it is said believed that, the available factory positions do not meet the aspirations of the younger generation. This is one of the reasons they advocated for the removal of quotas in government jobs, as it would create additional employment opportunities for them. Projections suggest that approximately 18 million young individuals in Bangladesh were seeking employment, with university graduates experiencing higher unemployment rates compared to their less-educated counterparts.

Significance of India - Bangladesh relations

Bangladesh serves as a vital conduit for commerce and transportation, connecting India's Northeast with the broader country and enhancing access to global markets. A stable and amicable Bangladesh is pivotal for ensuring regional security. Collaboration on counter-terrorism, border security, and various security issues is essential for sustaining peace in South Asia. Bangladesh stands as India's largest trading partner in South Asia, while India ranks as the second largest trading partner of Bangladesh in Asia. This economic partnership aligns with India's objectives outlined in its foreign trade policy and aids in its ambition to achieve a USD 5 trillion economy. Effective cooperation between India and Bangladesh is fundamental for the success of regional organizations such as BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) and SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation).

Indian enterprises and investments in Bangladesh may encounter challenges such as, interruptions in trade and delays in payments could adversely affect the profitability and overall stability of these investments. The unrest is expected to have repercussions for Indian-owned textile manufacturing facilities in Bangladesh, where approximately 25% of such units are under Indian ownership. There is a possibility that these facilities might relocate their operations back to India in response to the prevailing instability. As discussions regarding a potential free trade agreement (FTA) commenced in October 2023, there was renewed optimism that it could enhance Bangladesh’s exports to India by as much as 297% and increase India’s exports by 172%.

Cause of concern

A destabilized Bangladesh is big concern for India, as it is not the only neighbor that is facing tough times both within itself and with India. Sri Lanka, Nepal, Myanmar, Maldives, Afghanistan are on the similar lines (not too similar though) with respect to India, ofcourse the China and Pakistan, everybody knows.

The situation in Bangladesh need to be stabilized soon and a people friendly government needs to be in power soon. The son of Sheikh Hasina, Sajeed Wazed also told the media that his mother might not return to Bangladesh but later said she might after situation normalizes.

However the way Bangladesh crowd treated her, she must be feeling quiet disheartened as she has been in power for around 20 years and uou don't treat such a leader like this.

How Bangladesh was created with the help of India. Read here.

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